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Chart
of Poultry, Red Meat and Eggs pro capita consumption
Poultry Takes Flight
Restaurants USA, November 1998
Although total poultry consumption has remained steady, the versatility of poultry
on menus continues to grow as consumers diversify their palates. With the introduction
of different cuisines into the American diet, the adaptability of poultry makes
it one of the most popular bases for not only countless ethnic dishes but traditional
American fare as well.
By Grace Han
Poultry continues to fly
up the ranks as one of the most popular entree items on restaurant menus, according
to the National Restaurant Association's Menu Analysis--1997. The study shows
that the availability of chicken on restaurant menus increased 3 percent between
1992 and 1997, with 85 percent of menus having offered at least one chicken
dish last year. Furthermore, chicken entrees accounted for 12 percent of total
main-course offerings in 1997.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported total poultry consumption
in the United States remaining relatively steady. In 1997, per-capita consumption
on a retail-weight basis weighed in at 91 pounds. That number is expected to
decrease to 90 pounds this year–but is projected to increase to 93 pounds
per capita by 1999, according to the Economic Research Service of the USDA.
CREST data shows that of all the times a meal or snack was ordered in 1996,
11.7 percent of the time it included chicken or poultry. In 1997, 12.3 percent
of meal or snack orders included chicken or poultry. According to the Association's
Tableservice Restaurant Trends--1997, 35 percent of consumers ordered more chicken
entrees in 1996 than in 1994.
Popular poultry picks
In the quickservice segment, chicken nuggets/strips/bits topped the list as
the most popular poultry item last year. Quickservice restaurants garnered the
largest share of the chicken nuggets/strips/bits orders in 1997, with consumers
ordering 86 percent of all chicken nuggets/strips/bits at fast-food establishments–a
2.5 percent increase over 1996. Orders for fried chicken–the second most
popular poultry item at quickservice restaurant in 1996 and 1997–remained
steady at 82 percent for each year.
In the midscale-restaurant segment, turkey was ordered more than any other type
of poultry, accounting for 51 percent of poultry orders. Barbecued-chicken consumption
at midscale establishments decreased 3 percent from 1996 to 36 percent of all
barbecued chicken ordered in 1997.
In the casual-dining segment of the industry, customers dined on grilled/charbroiled
chicken more often than any other type of poultry in 1997, amounting to 23 percent
of all grilled/charbroiled chicken ordered.
Topping it off
Chicken has also become one of the most popular toppings for main-dish salads,
according to Menu Analysis–1997. Chicken-topped salads gained 3 percent
between 1992 and 1997, totaling 19 percent of all main-dish salads. More than
half of all 1997 menus (55 percent) offered chicken on a salad, compared to
53 percent of menus in 1992.
Chicken sandwiches remained the most popular sandwich to offer on tableservice
menus, despite the popularity of hamburgers. In 1997, chicken sandwiches, whether
grilled or in patty form, appeared on more menus than hamburgers, with 79 percent
of the menus analyzed offering some type of chicken sandwich. According to CREST
figures, the proportion of chicken sandwich orders in restaurants remained the
same from 1996 to 1997.
Consumption of orders from restaurants that specialized in chicken were split
almost evenly between those for on-premises and those for off-premises consumption.
In 1997, customers consumed 50.3 percent of orders on premises and 49.7 percent
off premises. Of the 49.7 percent consumed off premises, customers ate 34.5
percent of orders at home, consuming the remaining meals (65.5 percent) either
in the car, at work or in some other location.
Down on the farm
The USDA reports a slow increase in chicken production and prices this year.
According to the Economic Research Service of the USDA, strength in the fast-food-market
segment is reflected in stronger producer prices for skinless, boneless breast
meat and wings, up about 10 and 20 percent, respectively, from a year ago (for
May through early August). Production is expected to increase less than 3 percent
this year, but is projected to increase 5 percent next year.
After turkey production had declined for two and a half years, the USDA reports
that reductions in feed costs and seasonal increases in turkey prices allowed
producers to break even in July. According to the National Turkey Federation,
turkey consumption has increased a whopping 225 percent since 1975, mainly owing
to consumers’ recognition of turkey’s good taste and nutritional value.
In 1997, U.S. consumers ate 17.6 pounds of turkey per person.
April 2000 issue
Modest Food-Price Growth Expected
Restaurants USA, April 2000
The long-term outlook for food prices calls for modest growth to continue through
2009, according to presentations by the U.S. Department of Agricutlure at its
Agricultural Outlook Forum 2000, which was held in April.
By Bradley Pine
Projections by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) show food prices increasing
at slightly below the general inflation rate during the next decade. The Consumer
Price Index (CPI) for food is expected to grow an average of 2.1 percent annually
through 2009, compared with the 2.7 percent average rise expected in the CPI
for all items. The USDA projection for prices for food away from home (2.2 percent
average annual growth) is almost even with the projection for food at home (2.1
percent).
The macroeconomic assumptions underlying USDA projections include slower real
U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2000 and 2001. This slowdown is
likely to occur in part because of an increase in personal savings and slower
gains in consumer spending. The projections also assume that the sharp upswing
in oil prices in late 1999 and the first quarter of 2000 will turn around by
the second quarter. A sustained period of higher oil prices should begin to
push food prices higher after approximately six months, according to USDA analysis.
World economic growth is expected to be moderate in 2000 and 2001, as countries
affected by the global financial crisis during the late 1990s recover. Between
2002 and 2009, average annual gains of 2.6 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively,
are expected in real GDP and real disposable personal income. Employment growth
is expected to be about 1.2 percent a year, and consumer-price growth is forecast
at an average annual rate of 2.8 percent through 2009.
The combination of relatively low price growth and moderate but steady growth
in the GDP and disposable personal income should have a positive impact on consumer
demand for food during the next decade. That, in turn, is good news for restaurateurs.
Beef and veal
Beef and veal retail prices rose 2 percent in 1999, and forecasts call for another
2 percent gain in 2000 and a 0.2 percent increase in 2001. Price growth is expected
to remain sluggish in 2002 and 2003 before increasing roughly 2 percent per
year between 2004 and 2009.
Per-capita consumption of beef is expected to decline from 68.8 pounds (retail
weight) in 1999 to 57.1 pounds in 2009. As a percentage of all consumer expenditures
for meat, beef represented 42.2 percent in 1999; it should decline to 39 percent
by 2009.
Beef production is forecast to decline 5.2 percent in 2000 and 4.9 percent in
2001 and then rise gradually through 2004. Production levels are expected to
be stable between 2005 and 2009. Production and per-capita consumption of veal
should decline slightly during the next decade.
Pork
Retail prices for pork dropped 1.8 percent in 1999 and are expected to increase
2.1 percent in 2000. Pork prices are expected to be relatively stable through
2009. Per-capita consumption of pork is expected to decline 4.3 percent in 2000
and 2.4 percent in 2001 but then show little change through 2009. Pork accounted
for 28 percent of consumer expenditures for meats in 1999, and its share should
drop only slightly to 26.75 percent by 2009.
Larger, more efficient pork producers should market a greater percentage of
the hogs during the next 10 years, resulting in greater efficiency. The United
States is also becoming an increasingly important net exporter of pork, although
the prospects for growth have been dampened somewhat by reduced demand in Russia.
Poultry
Retail prices for broilers rose 0.3 percent in 1999, but
declines of 1.2 percent and 0.7 percent are expected in 2000 and 2001, respectively.
Broiler prices are projected to increase slowly between 2002 and 2007 before
declining in 2008 and 2009.
Poultry production is forecast to expand as broiler meat gains an increasing
share of total meat consumption. Poultry meat is likely to remain less expensive
than other meats, so consumers should be able to purchase more poultry meat
per dollar.
Per-capita consumption of poultry should jump from 96.7 pounds (retail weight)
in 1999 to 113.3 pounds by 2009. As a percentage of all consumer expenditures
for meat, broilers should rise from 26 percent in 1999 to 31 percent in 2009.
Poultry firms are likely to continue to promote poultry's image of providing
lean, convenient products and to focus on the further-processed market, according
to USDA forecasts.
Eggs
Retail prices for eggs dropped 5.4 percent in 1999, the third consecutive year
of decline after a 17.9 percent increase in 1996. Price growth is expected to
accelerate during the second half of this decade, with egg prices in 2009 more
than 25 percent higher than the 1999 level.
Per-capita consumption of eggs should grow 3.3 percent overall during the next
decade with gains in processed-egg products offsetting declines in shell eggs.
Processed-egg products, which are ingredients in many prepared foods, are an
increasing part of the egg market.
Dairy products
Retail prices for dairy products should decline slightly in 2000, following
significant gains in the previous three years. Between 1998 and 2008, dairy-product
prices are projected to grow an average of 1.8 percent a year.
Relatively high milk prices fueled a milk-production expansion between 1996
and 1999 that is expected to result in lower milk prices during the next two
years. Milk production is expected to grow moderately, with milk prices rising
slightly below the pace of the general inflation rate once adjustments to recent
high prices are completed.
High milk/feed price ratios are expected to sustain growth in milk per cow,
while milk-cow numbers decline slowly. Demand for dairy products is expected
to grow at or slightly above the rate of population growth. Demand for cheese
and milk solids for processed foods is expected to grow faster than the population.
Those gains should be partly offset by gradual declines in per-capita demand
for fluid milk and other perishable manufactured products.
Fruits and vegetables
Retail prices for fruits and vegetables rose 2.5 percent in 1999 and should
gain 3 percent in 2000. Price growth during the next decade is expected to average
2.8 percent per year.
Fruit production is expected to jump 8 percent in 2000 and 4.6 percent in 2001.
Citrus-fruit production is expected to rebound from a 22.9 percent decline in
1999 to a 17.7 percent advance in 2000. Fruit production should expand at an
average annual rate of roughly 2 percent through 2009. Per-capita consumption
of fresh fruit is expected to grow less than 1 percent annually during the next
decade, but growers should benefit from export growth averaging 5 percent per
year.
Per-capita consumption of fresh vegetables should grow 1.6 percent annually
from 1999 to 2009, slightly outpacing population growth during the same period.
Fresh-vegetable production is expected to post average annual growth of 2.1
percent during the 10-year period. Retail prices for fresh vegetables declined
3.2 percent in 1999 but should grow 3.8 percent in 2000.
Per-capita consumption of processed fruits and vegetables is expected to increase
an average of 1.4 percent from 1999 to 2009. Processed-fruit-and-vegetable prices
rose 2 percent in 1999 and should accelerate with a 4.8 percent hike in 2000.